Analysing the Trends to Make a Selection for the Queen Mother Champion Chase

Amidst the thundering hooves and electrifying atmosphere of the Cheltenham Festival, the Queen Mother Champion Chase emerges as one of the most thrilling spectacles at the iconic Prestbury Park meeting.

As the countdown to the 2024 edition of this prestigious race begins, contenders like El Fabiolo, Jonbon, and Edwardstone emerge as the frontrunners, with those weighing up a bet on racing for the Champion Chase.

To unravel the enigma of this celebrated contest, let’s embark on a journey through the trends that have formed its recent narrative.

Age

They were aged between seven and nine, stand as a beacon of success in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, with 10 of the last 12 victors falling within this bracket.

This sweet spot encapsulates a perfect harmony between still being young enough to have low mileage but developed enough to handle the trials and tribulations of this gruelling contest.

Odds

Siding with the favourites has not paid off in the last 12 years, as just five market leaders have clinched victory.

However, the market remains a dependable compass — as 11 of the 12 victors have been in the top three of the market.

This underscores the importance of closely monitoring the leading contenders as they vie for supremacy.

Last Time Out

How a horse fared last time out emerges as a pivotal determinant of success, with six previous dozen champions triumphing on their prep run for the Champion Chase.

Moreover, the bulk of victors showcased their mettle within the last 53 days, emphasizing the significance of maintaining peak form ahead of the grand spectacle.

Build-up Races

Ascot’s prestigious Clarence House Chase has proven to be a crucible of groundwork, with eight of the last 12 winners showcasing their prowess in Berkshire.

Interestingly, just four of those eight won the Clarence House Chase, while two others placed.

Cheltenham Form

Understanding the testing, Cheltenham Racecourse proves instrumental, with all but one of the last 12 champions running at the iconic venue at least once.

Furthermore, eight of the last 12 winners showcased their prowess with prior wins at Cheltenham, attesting to their affinity for its unique challenges.

Two-mile Pedigree

Mastery over distances of roughly two miles emerges as a cornerstone of success in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

All 12 demonstrated proficiency over these testing trips, while all but two boasted an impressive tally of at least six victories.

Fences Form

A robust substance in steeplechases forms the bedrock of triumph, with all but one of the last 12 champions amassing at least seven runs over fences and all boasting a minimum of five wins.

Ratings

A lofty rating emerges as a frequent factor with winners, as 10 out of 12 champions displayed ratings of 164+.

Top-level Wins

Triumph in Grade 1 and Grade 2 contests is a hallmark of potential, with all of the last 12 winners bragging at least one win in the top two classes.

Longer-term Form

An unswerving campaign underscores the path to success in the Champion Chase, with 11 of the last 12 winners being unleashed at least twice and picking up a win.

While favourites might not have the best record, it’s tough to look beyond El Fabiolo, who ticks almost all of the boxes.

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